Can NASA Land Astronauts on the Moon in 2027?

A Reality Check on Schedule, Risk, and Cost

NASA selected SpaceX to provide the Human Landing System (HLS) for Artemis III, the mission intended to return astronauts to the Moon for the first time since Apollo. While the partnership represents a bold shift toward commercial deep-space exploration, growing delays across multiple Artemis elements raise a critical question: is the current schedule realistic?

NASA’s official planning still targets Artemis II in 2026 and a crewed lunar landing on Artemis III in 2027. On paper, this appears achievable. In practice, Artemis III is one of the most complex human spaceflight missions ever attempted, combining new launch systems, new spacecraft, new spacesuits, and an entirely new lunar landing architecture.

The Current Artemis Schedule

• Artemis II: First crewed flight of the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion capsule, flying astronauts around the Moon and back to Earth. Current target: 2026.
• Artemis III: First crewed lunar landing mission using SpaceX’s Starship-based Human Landing System. Current target: 2027.

While these dates are still referenced publicly, NASA leadership and independent oversight agencies have repeatedly acknowledged that the schedule carries significant risk.

What Actually Drives the Artemis III Timeline

Artemis III does not hinge on a single spacecraft being ready. Instead, it depends on several major programs all reaching maturity at the same time. Any delay in one can delay the entire mission.

1. Starship Human Landing System
   SpaceX must complete development of a lunar-optimized Starship variant and successfully fly an uncrewed demonstration mission to the Moon before astronauts are allowed onboard.
2. On-Orbit Cryogenic Refueling
   Artemis III relies on multiple Starship tanker launches and a propellant depot to refuel the lunar lander in Earth orbit. This capability has never been demonstrated at scale.
3. Lunar EVA Spacesuits
   New spacesuits capable of supporting long-duration lunar surface operations are still in development and remain on the critical path.
4. SLS, Orion, and Ground Systems
   Artemis III cannot proceed without a successful Artemis II, followed by another SLS/Orion launch with its own complex processing flow and limited flight cadence.

What Are the Odds of Meeting the 2027 Landing Date?

Assigning probabilities to spaceflight schedules is never exact, but history provides useful guidance.

• Artemis II in 2026: Moderate confidence. The hardware exists, but integration and certification work remains. Estimated probability: 60–75%.
• Artemis III landing in 2027: Low confidence. Multiple first-of-a-kind demonstrations must succeed with little margin for rework. Estimated probability: 20–35%.

The largest uncertainty is Starship HLS, not because SpaceX lacks capability, but because the mission architecture requires operational refueling, high launch cadence, and deep-space crew safety certification all within a very compressed timeframe.

A More Realistic Artemis III Timeline

If Artemis II flies in 2026, a more realistic path to a crewed lunar landing would look like this:

• 2026–2027: High-cadence Starship test flights focused on orbital operations, docking, and cryogenic propellant transfer.
• 2027–2028: Uncrewed Starship HLS lunar demonstration mission, validating descent, landing, ascent, and rendezvous operations.
• 2028–2029: Artemis III crewed lunar landing mission.

This timeline introduces necessary schedule margin and aligns more closely with how NASA has historically certified human-rated systems.

How Could NASA Improve the Chances of an Earlier Landing?

Reaching the Moon sooner would require aggressive risk reduction:

• Accelerating Starship flight cadence and rapidly closing technical issues.
• Treating orbital refueling as a primary mission objective, not a secondary test.
• Ensuring stable funding for spacesuit development and surface systems.
• Allowing adequate time between the uncrewed demo and the first crewed landing.

Even with these measures, compressing the timeline further would significantly increase risk.

What History Tells Us About NASA Schedules

NASA programs involving new human-rated systems almost always take longer than initially planned:

• The Space Shuttle experienced years of delays before its first flight.
• The James Webb Space Telescope, while uncrewed, demonstrated how complex integration drives schedule growth.
• SLS and Orion themselves slipped repeatedly before Artemis I finally launched.

Artemis III combines multiple “firsts” into a single mission. Historically, that combination strongly correlates with schedule extension.

Artemis Spending: Planned vs. Likely Final Cost

NASA’s Artemis program is already one of the most expensive exploration efforts in history.

• Total Artemis campaign spending through the mid-2020s is already measured in the tens of billions of dollars.
• SLS and Orion are estimated to cost several billion dollars per launch when production, operations, and ground systems are included.
• SpaceX’s Human Landing System contract is valued in the low-to-mid single-digit billions, with additional options already exercised.

Every year of delay adds cost due to standing workforces, facility operations, program management, and contractor support. If Artemis III slips into 2028 or 2029, it would not be surprising for total “cost to first landing” to exceed $100 billion, depending on how costs are categorized.

The Bottom Line

A 2027 Artemis III lunar landing is not impossible, but it is unlikely. The mission depends on several unprecedented capabilities becoming operational with little margin for error. A landing in the 2028–2029 timeframe better reflects technical reality, historical precedent, and programmatic risk.

If successful, Artemis will establish a sustainable human presence beyond Earth orbit and fundamentally change how deep-space exploration is conducted. But getting there will require acknowledging that physics, engineering, and integration—not calendar dates—ultimately dictate when humanity returns to the Moon.