Global Pollution, Rockets vs World.

Rockets vs the Planet: How Much Pollution Do Space Launches Produce Compared to Everything Else?

Introduction

With the burgeoning commercial space sector and an ever-growing cadence of rocket launches, it’s reasonable to ask: how significant are the environmental impacts of these launches compared with the far larger global emissions from human activities? In this article we explore what the latest research says about pollution from rocket launches (including fuel burn, black carbon, ozone impacts and re-entry of debris) and then compare it with the pollution from all other major human sources such as fossil fuel combustion, aviation, shipping, industry and land-use changes. Finally, we draw a conclusion about the overall impact of rocket launches in context.

The Pollution from Rocket Launches

Here are some key findings on the environmental footprint of rocket launches.

1. Launch numbers and fuel consumption

Researchers at University College London report that there were ~259 orbital launches in 2024, and ~223 in 2023, with over 153,000 tonnes of rocket fuel burned in 2024. The Guardian
Historical inventories show that for 2019 the stratospheric emissions from launches were estimated at ~5.82 Gg (gigagrams) of CO, 0.28 Gg of black carbon, 0.22 Gg of NOx, 0.50 Gg of other species. AGU Publications
The number of launches and payloads is increasing rapidly: for instance, in some analyses the number of payload objects launched increased from 221 in 2016 to 2,644 in 2023. State of the Planet+1

2. Types of pollutants and mechanisms

Rocket launches emit fuel-combustion products (CO₂, water vapour, soot/black carbon, alumina particles if solid boosters, chlorine/hydrochloric acid from some solid propellant exhausts). PMC+2Space+2
Soot and black-carbon emitted into the stratosphere are especially concerning, since they persist longer and affect radiative forcing and ozone chemistry. For example: “CO₂ emissions from rocket launches are negligible compared with other anthropogenic sources …” Nature
However:
“By 2040, the total global flux of launch and re-entry particulate (black carbon and metal oxides) emissions into the stratosphere will be comparable to the …” NASA Technical Reports Server
Impacts on ozone layer, especially from solid rocket motor emissions (hydrochloric acid, alumina, chlorine radicals) have been documented. Nature+1
Environmental health-effects near launch sites: one paper reports insect richness suppression, fish-kills downstream of launch acid plumes, etc. Nature

3. Relative scale and caveats

A recent Nature modelling study emphasises: “CO₂ emissions from rocket launches are negligible compared with other anthropogenic sources, and are not further investigated here.” Nature
However, the fire-hose effect of soot/black carbon into sensitive high altitude regions may have disproportionate effects per kilogram relative to surface emissions.
For instance, one article noted that rockets “inject about 1,000 tons of soot into the upper atmosphere per year” under current levels. TIME
Because of the diversity of rocket types, propellants and trajectories, plus incomplete data on re-entry emissions, there are large uncertainties.

4. Example numbers

In 2019: stratospheric emissions inventory for rocket launches: ~5.82 Gg CO, ~0.28 Gg black carbon. AGU Publications
One blog gives a rough figure: “rocket launches generate between 50-75 tonnes of CO₂ per passenger” (for space tourism/crew scenarios) though noting that number of flights is small; context: >100,000 commercial flights per day vs ~100 launches per year. breeze-technologies.de

The Pollution from All Other Human Sources

To put launches into context, let’s look at global emissions from more familiar sectors.

1. Global CO₂ emissions

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that in 2024 global energy-related CO₂ emissions rose to ~37.8 Gt CO₂. IEA+1
The total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CO₂ + CH₄ + N₂O + F-gases) are estimated at ~53.0 Gt CO₂-equivalent for 2023. edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu

2. Sectoral shares

Aviation accounts for ~2.5% of global CO₂ emissions. Our World in Data+1
Transport (cars/trucks, shipping, rail, aviation) plus electricity/industry/agriculture are the dominant sources. For example, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) categorises sources: electricity production, transportation, industry, buildings, agriculture. EPA
Shipping alone is estimated at ~3% of global GHG emissions. Wikipedia

3. Implication
You can see that compared with tens of billions of tonnes of CO₂ and gigatonnes of GHG emissions annually from fossil fuel burning and land-use changes, the rocket-launch contribution appears extremely small in terms of mass of CO₂.

Putting It Together: Rocket Launches in the Big Picture

1. Relative contribution by mass
Given the data:

Rocket launches emit on the order of thousands of tonnes of black carbon / soot and tens to hundreds of thousands of tonnes of propellant fuel per year (depending on assumptions) in 2023-24.
Global CO₂ emissions from other human sources are ~37 000 Mt (i.e., ~37 000,000 kt) per year.
Thus, by simple mass comparison (for CO₂ at least) rocket launches represent a minute fraction—well under 0.01 % of global CO₂ emissions.

2. But: altitude and type of emission matters
– Rockets launch into and through the stratosphere and mesosphere, so soot/particles there have longer residence times and different climate/ozone effects compared to surface emissions.
– Some pollutants (aluminium oxides, chlorine, hydrochloric acid, perchlorate from solid motors) may have localised or high-altitude special effects (ozone depletion, ecosystem damage near launch sites).
– Future projections: one NASA-TM document suggests that “by 2040 … total global flux of launch & re-entry particulate … will be comparable to the …” reference level (implying a growth scenario) NASA Technical Reports Server

3. Key caveats and uncertainties
– Data on launches (especially non-public launches) and re-entry emissions are incomplete.
– Launch types differ: liquid rockets, solid rockets, hypergolic fuels—all have quite different pollutant profiles.
– Even if current mass is small, growth rates are steep (especially with satellite megaconstellations, more frequent launches) which could change the dynamics. Mongabay
– Effects are not only about CO₂ mass: black carbon in stratosphere may have outsized radiative/climate/ozone effects per unit mass.

Conclusion: How Big is the Rocket Impact vs Everything Else?

Based on the evidence:

In terms of mass of CO₂ and major GHGs, rocket launches contribute an extremely small proportion of global emissions—virtually negligible compared to sectors like electricity generation, road transport, aviation, shipping or industry.
However, that very small mass does not mean “no impact.” Because rocket emissions occur at high altitude or via solid‐rocket by-products that affect ozone and climate in unique ways, their per-tonne effect may be larger than ordinary surface emissions.
The current picture suggests that, today, rocket-driven pollution is not a leading driver of global greenhouse-gas emissions or climate change relative to other sources. But the trajectory matters: if launch rates continue to increase dramatically (and new technologies scale), the space sector could grow into a more significant contributor.
From a policy perspective: although the space-launch pollution issue deserves attention (especially ozone, black-carbon, ecosystem impacts near launch sites), it should not distract from the far more urgent need to reduce emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, transport, industry and land-use change—those are the bulk of the climate challenge today.

In short: rocket launches are a tiny piece of the global-pollution pie today, but given their distinct altitude effects and rapid growth potential, they are a piece we should watch and regulate proactively—while continuing to focus most of our efforts on the large, established sources.

Recommendations for Further Monitoring and Action

Encourage transparency and industry/government disclosure of launch emissions (fuel types, soot output, re-entry debris).
Support research into “cleaner” launch technologies (e.g., hydrogen-based, methane reusable stages, solid propellant alternatives) to reduce black carbon/ozone impacts.
Consider regulation or incentives for minimizing high-altitude soot and reactive chemical outputs from space launches.
Continue to prioritise decarbonisation of major sectors (power, transport, industry) but include space-launch sector in longer-term climate policy frameworks.
For KnowledgeOrb’s audience (space and science enthusiasts): we present balanced coverage—yes, launches do pollute, yes the effects matter—but also keep the scale in perspective.

I hope this article gives your readers at KnowledgeOrb a clear, evidence-based overview of how rocket-launch pollution compares with global pollution, and what the overall impact is now and into the future.