2025 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug,
02 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 866 km/s at 30/0729Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 30/1109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
30/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 821 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (02 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 149
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 148/146/146
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 009/ 008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 012/014-008/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/25/20