2026 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2026

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 548 km/s at 26/1241Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
25/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(29 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 148
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 015/018-013/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/40/25