2026 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2026

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct,
10 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 06/2110Z. Total field was
under 5 nT and the Bz component reached -4 nT at 07/1701 UTC. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11911
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (09 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 Oct).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 114
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 115/115/116
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-019/030-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/45/30
Minor Storm 01/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/40/30