2025 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul,
16 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 13/0749Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 12/2345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 13/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 596 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 128
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 125/128/130
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/012-009/010-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/25/25