2026 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2026

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Oct) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (28
Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 380 km/s at 26/1656Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
26/1803Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/1544Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3304 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 091
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 90/85/85
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 008/008-005/005-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/15