2026 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2026

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Mar, 15 Mar) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (16 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 13/2039Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 13/0940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 13/0813Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 25/25/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 120
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 017/020-011/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/35/35
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/45/45